Russia continues to pose a formidable danger to Ukraine, one that has profoundly destabilized the European security order. Yet extrapolating that danger into the specter of a Russian march across NATO borders lacks evidence, misreads intent, and distorts policy responses.

The possibility that nuclear weapons might be used constrains how far Ukraine’s “Coalition of the Willing” can deter or respond, even if hundreds of billions are spent and dozens of nations pledge support.

The present moment of global upheaval could have been Europe’s hour of relevance. It had the means, the history, and the moral stature to lead. Instead, it deferred, equivocated, and shrank.